Nov 30, 2019


25th November to 29th November 2019


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Weekly Newsletter

Week Starting 18th November to 22nd November, 2019


Trading currencies, stocks, futures, and options entail significant risk. The highly leveraged nature of futures trading can result in substantial gains as well as substantial losses. You are entirely responsible for all the risks from your trading decisions. You should not make any trading decisions unless you understand the nature of the trades (transactions) you are entering into and your exposure to loss. If you do not fully understand these risks,

Fundamentals History of Previous Week

GBP - Latest UK election poll has Conservatives 12 points ahead. I would expect to see some GBP selling.

In previous week JPY was the strongest and the CHF was the weakest currency.

USD - US-China phase one talks are getting more complicated and could slide into next year, according to a breaking Reuters report that cites 'people close to the White House. The problem is that top US trade officials fear that rolling back tariffs in a deal that doesn't address IP and tech transfer issues would not be seen as a 'win' for the President. Negotiations also are complicated by conflicts within the White House about the best approach to China, and by the fact that Trump could veto any agreed deal at the last minute.

CAD & OIL - Canada ADP October employment -22.6K vs +28.2K prior.

USD & OIL - Crude oil inventories build of 1379K vs 1500K estimate. Oil jumps as US petroleum inventory data tighter than expected. Fundamentally, it's all about China-US talks and the Dec 5 OPEC meeting.

GBP - Look beyond the UK election for the pound. Brexit will take center stage again and A no-deal Brexit is still possible. So, 2019 may have been a testing year for the pound but 2020 looks like it could be just as uncertain and messy because the issue of Brexit isn't going to go away any time soon.

JPY & GOLD: Risk trades are under pressure after this report from CNBC's Beijing correspondent Eunice Yoon: “Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support."

Major Upcoming Fundamental Highlights

EUR - German Ifo Business Climate. Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. 25th November,2019 – 15:00 GMT+5.

NZD - Core Retail Sales q/q. Previous was 0.3% but expecting 0.6% which is strong sign for NZD. 26th November,2019 – 03:45 GMT+5.

AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. 26th November,2019 – 15:05 GMT+5.

USD - The Conference Board (CB) release data monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month which measure Level of a composite index based on surveyed households. Expecting 126.9 from previous 125.9 which is good sign. 26th November,2019 – 21:00 GMT+5.

NZD - Reserve Bank of New Zealand releasing financial stability report which is issuing twice per year following by Gov Rr speech. 27th November,2019 – 01:00 GMT+5.

Let’s have look at Weekly Trading Opportunities: